The Suzuka circuit demands precision but rewards speed, a skill Red Bull’s German driver has in spades

Wrapping up the season with four races to go may be galling for fans of Formula One but if Sebastian Vettel wins here at Suzuka on Sunday, and he needs but one point to do so, there are few more appropriate places for him to take the title. Japan has crowned champions 12 times in the 26 races held here and Suzuka, beloved of drivers yet unforgiving of errors, with its testing corners and crushing gradients, has hosted more title celebrations than any other circuit in the world.

Vettel has both been on pole and won in Japan for the previous two years – betting against a hat-trick would be unwise. Suzuka demands precision but rewards speed, a skill the German has in spades and shares with the greats who have won here. Hit the ‘S’ bends correctly and four turns can be gone in a blur with barely a squeeze of the brake pedal. That he has mastered the intricacies of this testing course can be seen in those two wins, leading from the off to put in nerveless, flawless wins in both – relatively uncomplicated victories that belie much of the history, rivalry and drama in which the circuit is steeped and which make it such a fantastic venue.

For many years scheduled as the penultimate or final race of the season, Japan held its first grand prix in 1976 to the huge appreciation of a motor sport hungry public. The fans here are every inch as passionate as their Italian, British and German counterparts. Witness hundreds who turned up on Thursday with no cars on track, just to watch the activity in the pits and the sheer numbers when Honda (who built Suzuka as a test track in 1962) were riding high supplying engines to Williams and McLaren in 1990 – three million people applied for the 120,000 tickets on offer. The same year Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost yet again went head to head here to decide the title.

Yet one of the most memorable of the these title-clinching races, certainly to many British fans – James Hunt’s sole championship win at that inaugural Japanese Grand Prix in 76 – was at the Fuji Speedway. Title rival Niki Lauda had suffered a horrific accident at the German GP on the Nordschleife circuit at the Nurburgring but made an incredible return to take the fight to the wire, with Lauda leading by three points when they reached Japan. Sadly it was not decided on track, torrential rain flooded the circuit and Lauda withdrew on the second lap saying the conditions were too dangerous. But the race went on and Hunt took the third place he needed – it had not been delivered with wheel-to-wheel action but Japan had offered a taste of some of the memorable drama that was to follow.

Fuji held one more race in 1977 and when F1 returned again to Japan it was to Suzuka in 1987, which would host the event exclusively for another 20 years, and it is the grand battles here that really stand out, most notably those of Senna and Prost.

Senna took his first title at Suzuka in 1988, which was a thriller. Having stalled his McLaren from pole position, the Brazilian chased down the leaders. As rain started to fall he caught Prost and demonstrated his mastery of the wet by taking the lead as the pair went through backmarkers on lap 27. “I told myself that it was over,” he said. “But I started to find my rhythm and was going quicker and quicker. From then on it was a big fight.” A fight the pair would soon resume.

The penultimate race of the season in 1989 saw Senna needing to beat Prost at Suzuka to stay in the title fight. Prost closed the door on Senna, the pair went off and although the Brazilian went on to take a remarkable win after fighting back into the lead, he was disqualified for having not made the chicane where the incident occurred. Alessandro Nannini won the race and Prost the title. Their rivalry was now bitter and Senna was convinced he was the victim of a conspiracy to ensure Prost took the championship, undoubtedly influencing their meeting in Japan a year later.

Already angry that pole position had been placed on the dirty side of the track, Senna’s complaints in 1990 changed nothing and as Prost took advantage heading down the hill into turn one, the Brazilian ploughed into a non-existent gap to take both cars out, their retirements guaranteeing his second title. For Prost, who had been cynical himself two years before, it was too much: “If this is how the championship is going to be concluded, the sport is dead,” he said. “I’m not ready to fight against irresponsible people on the track who are not afraid to die.” Their meetings at Suzuka remain an integral part of the drivers’ place in motor racing history.

But the track’s significance was by no means over, Michael and Mika played their part as well. In 1998 Mika Hakinnen led Michael Schumacher by four points at the final round in Suzuka and held his nerve to take the title. Two years later at the circuit the pair fought all race long before Schumacher took the win and his third title by two seconds. In 2003, Schumacher fought back from 14th on the grid to take the eighth place he needed while Hakinnen could not secure the win he required as Rubens Barrichello took the chequered flag. Suzuka was host to Shumacher’s sixth world championship.

Vettel managed only third fastest in practice on Friday but showed excellent pace on long runs, although not without incident, a reminder that, even for champions, a win here is truly earned. The German went off in the first session at the Degner curve, coming to a rest at the barrier: “I wasn’t 100% awake,” he said. “And mistakes round here can be quite costly.”

It is a lesson all the greats have learned and he will be in their exalted company on Sunday but while this drive to become the youngest ever double world champion is unlikely to throw up similar drama, that it is taking place here, at one of the finest circuits in the world, will be lost neither on him nor the legions of Japanese fans who have come to see it all happen again, at Suzuka.

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Red Bull driver’s deserved second world title would curtail an exceptional championship with five grands prix to go

Sebastian Vettel will come to the floodlit Marina Bay street circuit on Sunday hoping for a coronation. But if he wins his second title in two years, to become the youngest of double champions at 24, the panoply and fanfares will be strangely muted.

The Formula One season would face five more races, blanketed in anticlimax, a silencer fitted to its raspy raucousness. There are still more than two months to go before the curtain comes down in Brazil on 27 November.

This would be one of sport’s most premature of celebrations. There were six races remaining when Michael Schumacher won in 2002, his fifth title equalling the record of Juan-Manuel Fangio. There were five races to go when Nigel Mansell won in 1992. But not even the most anhedonic of race fan is objecting to all of this.

Vettel’s brilliance may have robbed his sport of a fitting acme; his triumph, when it comes, will have a sort of death-and-taxes inevitability about it. However, this downbeat denouement cannot disguise the fact that this has been an exceptional season.

Ross Brawn, the technical director of the championship-winning Benetton and Ferrari teams and one of the wisest of paddock people, thinks it has been a memorable year. Brawn, who now leads Mercedes, says: “It’s been a fantastic season. OK, it would have been nice to see the championship battle go down to the wire, but in the absence of that all the racing that’s been going on, both at the front and through the field, has been first-class.

“That viewing figures are up in a lot of countries confirms the point that it has been a compelling season and demonstrates the sport’s appeal. We haven’t had any processional races.”

Down at the other end of the paddock, Virgin’s team principal, John Booth, is equally enthusiastic. “It’s been the most exciting season I can remember,” he says. “That Vettel is going to win it easily doesn’t detract from an exciting year.

“There’s been lots more overtaking. There have been two factors here. The Pirelli tyres have made a big difference, requiring more thought and strategy, which has led to more swapping of positions, and we have had some water on the circuits too, which always helps.”

The racing was also exceptional last season but because of some unforced errors from Red Bull and some poor judgments from a less experienced Vettel, the race for the title went to the last race.

Booth adds: “There has been a genuine effort from the technical committee over the past two seasons to increase overtaking. We looked at lots of ways and came up with the new Pirelli tyres and DRS which has also been fantastic.

“There’s been more position changes through tyre strategy than through DRS, not just pure overtaking but the careful planning of pit stops, that sort of thing.”

F1 has become more entertaining but, according to Booth, there will always be the chance of a runaway winner, like Vettel. He is far from guaranteed to win the title on Sunday but a podium finish means he could be crowned. If Vettel wins and Fernando Alonso finishes lower than fourth while Jenson Button and Mark Webber are lower than third, then the title will belong to the German.

“They will never make F1 more equal until they put everyone in the same car,” Booth says. “There is so much brainpower out there, and different budgets, there will always be someone who comes up with a different idea, a better idea. But that doesn’t detract from the racing.”

Booth feels that Vettel is a worthy champion. “Absolutely. More so this year than last year. The second half of this year the other cars have been closer to him but he has still won races. And he has stretched away from his team-mate this year too. He and Webber were much closer last year.

“I think Sebastian has got that bit extra this time. I don’t think I’ve seen a mistake from him this season. It’s too early to call him a great driver, like Michael Schumacher, say, who dominated in two different cars, although there was the same technical team.”

Brawn points to the previous race, the Italian Grand Prix at Monza, as an example of the spectacle we have had this year. “Schumacher’s battle with Lewis Hamilton divided opinion but it was great entertainment, great racing. Seeing two guys right on the edge like that was a treat and we’ve had lots of races like that.

“We can’t be complacent. We will look at DRS in the winter. If it’s not achieving its objectives we can tone it down. We’ve got to look how we can improve things further but the sport’s in very good health. It’s just up to us and McLaren and Ferrari to give the Red Bulls a harder time next year.”

Some people, though, are never satisfied. The former world champion Jacques Villeneuve said this week: “Races are a borefest. I’m not a fan of the new rules, artificial rear wings and all that sort of stuff. It makes me yawn and fall asleep. I don’t see any great driving any more.”

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• The world champion’s advantages go beyond the Red Bull
• Paddock pundits pinpoint what makes the German stand out

The Formula One season is not yet a quarter over – hardly beyond its chrysalis stage – but some of its most respected voices have hailed Sebastian Vettel as not only this year’s champion-elect but one of the greatest drivers the old ear-bashing sport has ever seen.

On the eve of Sunday’s Spanish Grand Prix the clear message is there does not have to be a Spanish Grand Prix or any other race this season.

We already know the truth. And it comes in the speed-blurred colours of Red Bull. It is that Vettel, the world champion and winner of three out of four of this year’s races, is simply unstoppable and will be duly anointed before the summer is out. His speed is palpable. But it is his driving brain that most impresses Mercedes’ team principal, Ross Brawn. “Obviously he’s very quick. But what is not always talked about is that he is also very intelligent,” he says.

“Put those two things together and you have a very strong driver. The intelligence is obvious with the tyres. He thinks things through. He makes the odd mistake but less than the others.

“Winning a championship always gives you confidence. And as your confidence grows you make fewer mistakes.”

At least Brawn says it is not all over yet. “It’s too early in the championship to say he can’t be stopped,” he said. “For sure Ferrari, McLaren and hopefully ourselves are going to start closing the gap on Red Bull soon.”

Both Mark Webber – who topped Friday’s two practice sessions – and Lewis Hamilton will draw some comfort from that. But for Virgin’s team principal, John Booth, it is all over before the end of May. “Can Vettel be stopped? In a word, no. He could run away with it. He’s a brilliant driver in the best car out there, so I think he’s headed for another title.”

Mike Gascoyne, the chief technical officer at Team Lotus, is of the same opinion. “If I had any money [sic], I wouldn’t be betting on anyone else,” he said.

There is an anti-Vettel sentiment in Britain. After all the German ended the world championship reign of Jenson Button when he won last year’s title. And he is the man who stands in the way of Hamilton becoming a multiple champion.

For Gascoyne it is the time Vettel has that makes him stand out in the strongest paddock most people can remember.

“It was very clear to me, early on, that Sebastian could cope. Fernando Alonso was exactly the same, and Michael Schumacher. It’s not all about driving quickly. So many guys can drive quickly but they can’t do all the other things.

“They can’t work with the engineers, they can’t think about what’s going on when they’re in the cockpit because they’re too busy driving.

“The really good ones, the great ones, have time. They have the capacity to think of other things while they’re driving flat out. That’s what makes the champions.”

Gascoyne added: “I think Seb will win three or four world championships. He was always going to be up there alongside Alonso and Schumacher. Lewis, possibly, too – but you have to be in the right car.

“This season Sebastian is absolutely on top of his game. Life becomes a lot easier when you’ve won your first title. You look at Mark [Webber], who could easily have won the championship last year and he is now nowhere.”

According to Button, himself something of a tyre preservationist, it is Vettel’s approach to Pirelli’s new rubber which has carried him clear of his team-mate.

“Last year, and the year before, Seb was pretty hard on tyres, especially the rears on soft tyres. But this year, for some reason, he is really good on tyres, even compared to Mark.”

Alonso says it is up to him and the other drivers to close the gap. “Seb is ahead thanks to his fantastic driving in these first four races. There have been no mistakes, he’s very quick and he deserved all those points. So it’s up to us now to recover this gap, to have more competitive cars, better cars than Red Bull.”

But that is the essential problem facing the other 11 teams in the Formula One paddock. There is nothing fundamentally new about the 2011 Red Bull. It is a car that evolved from last year’s model, designed by Adrian Newey.

But that is enough. And the total dominance of the car has been disguised by the changes made to racing this year; if the cars were still being shod by Bridgestone Red Bull would have won every race, and done so by a large margin.

Even as is stands now Vettel has only to carve out a lead of three or four seconds – enough time, that is, to follow another car into the pits and still emerge in front – for him to win on the new, highly degradable tyres.

There is another reason why Red Bull are even stronger this year than last. They have eliminated the silly mistakes – both technical and strategic – that they made last year, when they should have wrapped up both titles well before the end. And that is what is in prospect this season.

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• Red Bull driver records day’s fastest time
• Alonso and Massa second and third quickest

McLaren’s easy dominance of today’s practice session was rudely overturned when, in the space of a few minutes towards the end, their times were bettered by Sebastian Vettel’s Red Bull and the quick and the red Ferrari pair of Fernando Alonso and Felipe Massa.

In the morning session Jenson Button had been fastest, followed by Vettel and Lewis Hamilton. For much of the afternoon the British pair were significantly quicker than their rivals but in the end they had to settle for fourth and fifth positions.

Friday practice tends to be a notoriously poor pointer to race Sunday. But Red Bull were expected to struggle on a track which does little to recognise their superior downforce. Instead, it was thought it would favour the greater power of McLaren, although Ferrari were always expected to be a danger in their home grand prix. In the final half-hour of the second session, though, both Red Bulls and Ferrari emerged with lower levels of fuel and softer tyres to remove any complacency that may have crept into the McLaren camp.

It was also a disappointing day for championship leader Hamilton’s main rival, Red Bull’s Mark Webber, who is just three points off the lead. He was sixth in both sessions, although in the afternoon he lost water pressure and had to stop the car. He missed the last 19 minutes of the session.

Vettel, who needs to regroup quickly if he is to revive his championship challenge following mishaps in Hungary and Belgium, said: “It was quite good today. It’s a Friday, so the lap times vary and you don’t know what the fuel loads are. But I’m quite confident. We will see the true pace tomorrow. McLaren are extremely quick. Ferrari were quick in the afternoon too. It will be tight. The gap between the cars will be very small.”

However insignificant the times today Ferrari will be comforted by them. The team has been under pressure and their performance in their home grand prix, where Alonso in particular will be scrutinised, could decide their season. Certainly, Alonso cannot afford another of the driver errors which have marred his campaign and held the deepest affection of the Ferrari supporters at arm’s length. Alonso said: “We have seen before that Friday’s results are very often turned on their heads on Saturday, so I definitely don’t want to make any predictions. We ran with different fuel levels today.”

Massa almost crashed when he went wide across the gravel at Parabolica, and his immediate fate was concealed in the clouds of dust thrown up by his car. Ferrari are never far away from drama these days.

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